Why NaMo cannot become India’s Next PM

It is no surprise that by the time this article gets uploaded and spread over the social media, my twitter timeline would be flooded with abuses. This is not a new phenomenon given the fact that the so-called NaMo Brigade is forever ready to attack intellectuals but could hardly counter them with facts. The moment you point out flaws in him, you become a paid Congress agent. Such is the irony of our country where though the Constitution does provide the Right of Freedom of Expression, but it is often gauged by those who find it fancy to call themselves the voice of the nation. In my last article ‘The Report Card of NaMo’ which invited plentiful of abuses after it went viral, I talked about the mirage of development created by the BJP to project Narendra Modi as a ‘Vikas Purush’. Today I would be discussing about some basic points which clearly indicates a tough time ahead for the Gujarat CM in the upcoming general elections.

It would be fairly unfair to say that there is huge unrest in the country after the anointment of Narendra Modi as BJP’s official PM candidate, but yes, within the BJP and the hardcore supporters of Modi, it has gained momentum. Slogans of ‘Modi for PM’ are doing rounds since a very long time now in the social media. But one needs to understand that elections cannot solely be won of the basis of slogan chanting. After all, not everybody possess the charisma of Indira Gandhi, who would stand on a dias, clad in a khadi saree, and cheer the slogan of ‘Garibi Hatao’, and people would realise that their messiah has come. Sorry boss, not happening. Then what are the bigger questions that the BJP and their crowned prince, Narendra Modi needs to look into? Let’s have a look.

The first and the foremost agenda which would be there in any party’s mind is the magic number of 272. It is not just a mere number, but will decide the fate of the largest democracy in the world in the next coming months. It is the number the BJP could not achieve even when there was the noise of 'Abki bari Atal Bihari' in 1998 and 1999. These were the two years when there was a BJP-led NDA government at the Centre. In 1998, the BJP fought from 388 seats and won 182 seats. A year later, riding the wave of the Kargil victory and the sympathy of losing the confidence motion in the Lok Sabha by one vote, the BJP assigned more seats to allies. The BJP contested 339 seats and again won 182 seats. Now let's talk about the last elections -- that is 2009. In it, after contesting on 433 seats, the BJP only managed 116 seats. So the question is, not only will Modi have to maintain this performance in the next election but also increase the numbers by one-and-a-half times, which is to be honest next to impossible.

Today’s politics is dominated by the coalition compulsions and no party can make it to Delhi without the support of a bunch of regional players. This is another hurdle in Modi becoming the PM is his image and politics. Vajpayee became the prime minister only after he found new allies in several states and made the NDA family big, very big. But in the final year of his regime, most partnerships broke down. Only Akali Dal and the Shiv Sena have been left behind. The trouble ahead for the NDA is to again bring closer old friends. It is said that Modi has a good political relationship with Jayalalithaa. But Amma hasn't yet made her stand clear. Naveen Patnaik is also firm on his stand of Ekla Chalo (walk alone) these days. Nitish's hatred is known to all and his latest exit from the NDA is a testimony to it. Mamata is worried about Muslim voters in West Bengal. If we talk about some new allies, the NCP is mired in allegations of corruption. The National Conference cannot get out of the Congress lap since its region has its own politics. So when they will not be able to make partnerships, will comments, shares and likes on Facebook make Modi the PM?

Even if for a time being if we forget about the coalition politics which depends a lot on calculations and self-interests after the elections, what about its own house which is not in order since a long time now. No one might be openly stepping out against Modi for the time-being but Advani, Shivraj and the Sangh Parivar have signalled on and off that the one-man show won't work. Leaders like Sushma Swaraj may feel that though she has been in central politics for two decades and has mass appeal, a state leader is staking claim when it is time for the top post. The point to be noted is that Sushma has never called Modi the party's most popular leader. Arun Jaitley, who once used to be Modi's Chanakya, is busy uprooting him, albeit with the calm of a lawyer. Rajnath is singing the Modi song but his existence and rise in the party has only been due to this. And the heaviest among them all, the eldest in the house, Advani, who has fallen silent for the time-being, has not missed the race yet. To encourage him stands a long battalion of dissatisfied party soldiers such as Gadkari and Sanjay Joshi. So till the time Modi becomes a non-controversial leader like Vajpayee in the party, how can he become the leader of the nation?

It is a well-known fact that the BJP doesn’t have reach in majority of the Indian states and is non-existent in many. BJP loves the word 'south'. In ideological debates, it is called a south-leaning party or a right-wing party. But nothing is right for the BJP in the country's south. We saw the debacle in Karnataka. In Andhra Pradesh, a grassroots leader like Bandaru Dattatreya was sidelined to make way for Venkaiah Naidu, a leader with the Delhi stamp. It lost an ally like the Telugu Desam. Whenever it found some ground in Tamil Nadu, it was on partnerships. For now, the party is empty-handed in the state. Due to the blank slate in the south, the party will not be able to have a pan-India presence allowing it to knock on the doors of 7 Race Course Road even if it does well in the north. 

In terms of reach and seats in the politically most significant state of Uttar Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party seems to have no answer. The BJP began sinking in Uttar Pradesh after 1998. As a result, the party's 57 MPs were reduced to 29. Kalyan Singh was expelled from the party and after Ramprakash Gupta, Rajnath became CM. He made a lot of announcements, a lot of promises but the party's Assembly seats in UP were reduced to 88. Rajnath came to the centre as minister and in 2004, BJP's condition deteriorated further. The situation now is such that the party is desperate to cross 10 seats in UP. But the BJP is still in a bad shape in UP. Here, it is filled with spent leaders for whom it will be enough if they retain their seats. All of them are busy manoeuvring with each other. And by just sending Modi protégé Amit Shah to invoke the Ram Mandir issue to polarise votes won’t help anymore. The voter of today is too smart to understand such narrow political tactics. In this scenario, if there is no answer in the BJP to politics in Uttar Pradesh, then the Delhi Durbar will just remain a dream.

So far, we had been only talking about external things. Now let us look at Modi's experience in the Parliament. Vajpayee got to the Parliament in the 1950s from UP's Balrampur. Other than a few breaks, he was in Parliament till 2004. Advani too has decades of parliamentary experience. The same thing can be said about Sushma, Jaitley and other central leaders. But Narendra Modi has seen Parliament only from the visitor's gallery. Manoeuvring, floor management and turning the direction of debates in Parliament is not as easy as addressing rallies. Modi has no experience of parliamentary politics whatsoever. This fact goes well against him. Those who have long experience in Parliament can fill even Modi with fear.

Modi fans by now must be boiling in fury and would say that his mass appeal and popularity would outdo all the points made here. Done, point well taken. But the bigger question is, has he won anything outside Gujarat? Narendra Modi is the lion of Gujarat. Not only his supporters, but we too believe this. After all, winning three Assembly elections on the trot is not a joke. But what about outside the state? Has the BJP been able to come to power in any other state using the Modi name? Will it be able to do so in the future? There is no answer to this. If we talk about the upcoming elections, in Rajasthan, the BJP is not dependent on Modi but Vasundhara. The party high command has given her a free hand and she would not like any interference. Shivraj too does not think of himself any less than Modi. Raman Singh too has been the CM since the time Modi became one. Delhi is the only state where Modi can openly play his cards. But the Aam Admi Party is here to spoil the game. This was the story of Assembly elections. In Lok Sabha elections, Modi will have a tougher task. Those projecting Modi for PM should answer if the Gujarat CM has come up with any strategy for Lok Sabha polls and what did it result in. After all the disaster in Karnataka, where Modi rallied quite extensively in his own capacity is still afresh in all our minds.

Last but not the least, one issue which would haunt Modi throughout his life and in my view would prove to be a huge deterrent in the upcoming general elections is the 2002 riots. Just like two rights don’t justify a wrong, similarly just talking about development cannot help in washing the bloods of thousands of innocents from his hands. Still nostalgic of what their very own PM, Atal Vihari Vajpayee said during the 2002 riots that, ‘My only message to the Chief Minister of Gujarat is that he should follow Raj Dharma and not discriminate on the basis of caste, creed and religion’. Modi moved ahead of Gujarat riots but the country remembers that he has never, till date, openly said that what happened in Gujarat should not have happened. He in his sheer arrogance has even refused to apologise for a gruesome mass killing which happened under his watch. The state government should have crushed the rioters with maximum force. Instead, those who were opposed to the riots were slowly side-lined and the rioters were given a free hand.

For all sorts of bouquets and brickbats feel free to leave a comment below or mail me at author.vish94@gmail.com