The Modi Mantra

Though the grass might look greener on the other side of the fence for BJP workers, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is well aware of the challenges that lay ahead of him. In the race for the 2014 General Elections, he is already pushing party leaders to focus on various issues of great concern. Though he might ride high in opinion polls and surveys and also be the most talked about politician in the country, the ground realities can be way more different than what is being projected. Winning opinion polls and winning the parliamentary elections in such great magnitude is a completely different ballgame and he understands it well.

In his first strategy meet which happened with party General Secretaries at Delhi a few days back, Modi supposedly cautioned his colleagues not to be “overconfident”, and instead get down to some hard work. The party has by far made no coherent plans as such to take against the Congress in the upcoming general elections as well as elections happening in key states such as Rajasthan, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. If sources are to be believed, the two key issues that he mainly focused on are the following.

The first issue that he is really worried about is that the BJP is losing key allies and it is important for the party to look for and engage prospective allies in all regions, no matter how big or small they might be. For instance, prospective allies could be AGP in Assam, INLAD in Haryana, TRS in the Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh and even possibly enticing BS Yeddyuruppa back to the BJP or at least the NDA. Nitish Kumar’s dramatic exit from the NDA has given them a big blow and has also shaken the foundation of getting more allies which are otherwise not easily available.

The other important issue that he focussed upon is the decreasing vote shares in the most populous and politically significant state of the country: Uttar Pradesh.  The BJP won 58 seats from UP in 1998, but since 1999 parliamentary elections the party’s tally has been on a continuous slide. Narendra Modi has posted his close aide Amit Shah as party’s in-charge of UP, and the former Gujarat deputy chief minister is expected to begin his campaign soon. For the BJP, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Odisha are key states where it needs to make substantive gains if it had to dislodge Congress. The party’s leader in Uttar Pradesh are optimistic and believe the current situation the state could allow the party to make significant gains, possibly doubling or tripling their tally since the last polls.

According to some leaders, there are three groups of voters in the state that NaMo can appeal to. For upper caste voters, Modi presents a perfect combination of Hindutva and strong administrative skills. Younger voters could also find appeal in his development oriented leadership. And among the lower castes, except the Yadavs, the psychological pride of electing a Prime Minister from among the OBC community could just evoke the right sentiments in favour of the BJP. In this context, his supporters are already toying with the idea of Modi contesting the next general elections from UP, preferably from one of the urban seats, Lucknow, Allahabad or Kanpur.

 What we need to understand out of this is the fact that Narendra Modi has a tough battle against him. While the ghosts of the 2002 riots will continue to haunt him, the fact that the BJP is losing on prospective allies is an issue of great concern for him. Even at the peak of their popularity in 1999, BJP barely retained its tally of 180 seats but at that time it had the solid allies in all parts of the country like the DMK, TDP, TMC, BJD JD(U) and there were a total of 24 allies. While now they are barely left with any allies except for Shiv Sena and Akali Dal which have limited electoral significance. In such a situation, it would be interesting to observe in the coming months, how Modi leads the election campaign for BJP and if he can really deliver as it is being boasted by his followers.

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Nitish's wrath on BJP

As the bitter fallout between the JD(U) and the BJP escalates into a power struggle in the state of Bihar, the latter seems to be uprightly aggressive. While the BJP bristles in fury at the ‘great betrayal’ by the former member of their alliance, it is windfall time too for the JD(U). As many as 18 ministerial portfolios are lying vacant which would be now filled by Kumar’s closest aides or independents that his party is desperate to rope in for its survival. Following the BJP-JD(U) split, Kumar ordered the dismissal of all 11 BJP ministers including his Deputy Prime Minister Sushil Kumar Modi.

Among other BJP ministers who got sacked include Prem Kumar (Urban Development and Housing), Satyadeo Narayan Arya (Mines and Geology), Nand Kishore Yadav (Road Construction), Chandra Rai (PHED), Ashwini Kumar Choubey (Health), Janardhan Singh Sigriwal (Labour Resources), Giriraj Singh (Animal and Fishery Resources), Sunil Kumar Pinto (Tourism) Sukhada Pandey (Art, Culture and Youth Affairs) and Ramadhar Singh (Cooperative). The state erstlwhile had only 29 ministers as against 36, including the Chief Minister, which were seven short of the maximum.

In the current scenario, Independents hold good chance of becoming ministers or head of boards or corporations. There are six independants so far in the 243 member assembly.Hitherto grossly outnumbered as Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal has merely 22 members, the BJP’s takeover of the Opposition with 91 members will further add to the ruckus in the assembly. On the other hand, Congress counts for four whereas CPI and Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJp have one member each.

Interestingly after the split went official, the saffron party released Nitish Kumar’s 2003 speech in which he openly praised Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as a leader with a future outside the state. This was clearly a desperate move by the BJP to embarrass Nitish Kumar indicating to his sudden ‘secular’ credentials and that he was not always opposed to the saffron strongman. The speech delivered at the inauguration of a railway project was well after the 2002 riots. To quote, he said “I am certain that Narendrabhai will not be confined to Gujarat for long and the country will get the benefit of his services.”

Meanwhile BJP stalwart LK Advani and Leader of Opposition at Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj visualized the end of the alliance as a highly unfortunate incident. However the leaders at Bihar have turned more aggressive. Ejected Deputy CM, Sushil Kumar Modi said on Sunday that the BJP would avenge this ‘Vishwasghaat’ (betrayal). He said “We’ll take revenge of this insult in the Lok Sabha elections next year. We’ll ask people to judge the performances of BJP ministers and compare them with that of the JD(U) ministers. We’ll not spare corrupt ministers.”

In today’s era of shifting goalposts, it would be interesting to see what would be the next move that Nitish Kumar takes. The Congress too is ready to lure the JD(U) with a special package for Bihar in the hope of a probable alliance in future. But Kumar being an Anti-Congress politician since his political beginning will he go ahead and join hands with the Congress? Or is it indeed a political suicide that they’ve committed? Only time seem to have the answers to this complex questions hidden in its womb.

Nitish Kumar Roars High

With Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi's stature reaching new heights and the return of LK Advani after his resignation was rejected by the BJP Parliamentary Board, the party that has been hit the most by this development seems to be the JD(U). Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's opposition to Narendra Modi is not new and the current rift between the BJP and the JD(U) is another proof to the old point. With his relationship with BJP flat-lining, the entire spotlight is now fixed on him. If sources are to be believed, he has received calls from senior BJP leaders like LK Advani and Rajnath Singh, requesting him to continue to be a part of the NDA. But despite serious attempts, this time he seems to be unmoved and adamant about his decision.

Since a very long time now, Nitish Kumar and his party the JD(U) has shown their displeasure over the growing influence and stature of Narendra Modi within the BJP and is seriously upset with his anointment as the Chairman of the Central Campaign Committee. And with Advani’s latest political drama over his resignation, they seem to be on their toes now to take a decision as to where do they stand. The JD(U) is one of the founding members of the NDA and is now in alliance with them since 17 years. Though senior leaders tried to lure Kumar, in their phone conversations, he reportedly offered no assurance to the BJP stalwarts that he will reconsider his decision to end their partnership.

In the wake of the latest crisis, the Bihar Chief Minister has asked all legislators from his party to stay at Patna on 15^th June for consultations. They are likely to discuss whether or not the JD(U) will continue its alliance with the BJP in future. So in case they go serious and split with the BJP, what options will then be available for the JD(U) in future? And with whom will they go ahead in the upcoming elections is the bigger question now. Nitish Kumar this morning also told the media that he has been in talks with West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee about assembling a non-congress, non-BJP ‘Federal Front’ that would include other regional powerhouses such as Odisha’s BJD led by Naveen Patnaik.

Recently a senior leader from Kumar’s JD(U) visited Mamata Banerjee for what according to him was a courtesy call. KC Tyagi also commented, ‘Both the UPA and NDA coalitions have failed.’ This is a direct criticism from the JD(U) which is also a part of the National Democratic Alliance spearheaded by the BJP, needless to say, they are a senior member of the alliance. At an interesting turn of events the BJP said that if Nitish Kumar’s party quits their alliance, he should seek an election in Bihar to prove he hasn’t lost the mandate of the people. BJP’s CP Thakur recently said ‘We won’t compromise on that; we have taken the decision after a lot of discussion.’

Ironically in parts of the state recently toured by Nitish Kumar, several posters of Narendra Modi have greeted him. The BJP has also invited Narendra Modi to address an election rally in Patna in October. By far, Nitish Kumar has placed a virtual restraining order on Narendra Modi campaigning in Bihar. Apart from a variety of reasons, a flashpoint in the alliance was hit a few days back when the JD(U) lost an important election in the Lok Sabha constituency of Maharajganj. Interestingly BJP leaders also accepted that their party cadres had not worked for the JD(U) candidate.

In the upcoming days it would be interesting to see what direction our Indian politics takes. Will the JD(U) end their 17 year of alliance with the BJP or is it another political façade created by both the parties? In case of a split and with Congress luring JD(U) with a special status and huge funds, is a future alliance with the Congress inevitable? Or will the Federal Front come out in a big way and pave the path of a new era in Indian Politics? History bears testimony that till date only governments led by the Congress and the BJP has lasted their full terms. All other attempts such as the United Front have failed due to individual greed of power among leaders of different parties. Will this time be an exception then?

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The Saffron Sun sets

As the lotus bloomed for the Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi yesterday with his anointment as the Chairman of the Central Campaign Committee, 24 hours later the old guard seems to be firing back at the coast. Former Deputy Prime Minister and the tallest leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party, Lal Krishna Advani resigned from all key party positions earlier this morning. This decision coming out at the wake of his growing dissatisfaction about the latest anointment of Modi as the Campaign Chief and the complete ignorance by party leaders about his views on the entire issue.

Denied time and again about any rift in the party, the BJP went into tizzy as the party patriarch quits all top positions by sending a resignation letter at around 11 am. The letter being personally delivered by Advani’s closest aide Deepak Chopra to BJP President Rajnath Singh. If sources are to be believed, the letter was written sometime during the wee hours after wide consultation yesterday with close aides and family members. Remember several warnings were coming since Saturday but all went ignored and the situation now is nothing but a stalemate.

To quote from the letter sent by LK Advani to Rajnath Singh, he wrote “All my life I have found working for the Jana Sangh and the Bharatiya Janata Party a matter of great pride and endless satisfaction to myself.” He also went on to say “For some time I have been finding it difficult to reconcile either with the current functioning of the party, or the direction in which it is going. I no longer have the feeling that this is the same idealistic party created by Dr Mookerji, Deen Dayalji, Nanaji and Vajpayeeji whose sole concern was the country, and its people. Most leaders of ours are now concerned just with their personal agendas. “

To be specific, he has resigned from three top positions including the National Executive, the Parliamentary Board and the Election Committee. However it is interesting to note that he hasn’t however resigned from the post of the NDA Working President. LK Advani has been since very long suggesting a two power model by asking the National Executive to form two campaign committees, one for the general elections while other for the state polls. The party leadership however failed to deliver to his demands and to some extent also tried to downplay him.

The BJP is now clearly under intense pressure to get their house in order as the senior most leader leaves the party in a lurch. It would be now interesting to see what would be the stand of senior leaders like Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley. Apart from top party leaders who are rushing to and fro between LK Advani and Rajnath Singh’s residences, the ideological backbone of the BJP, the RSS has also stepped in. While the negotiations have already begun and several offerings being made to the party stalwart, LK Advani looks extremely adamant.

The BJP President has however refused to accept his resignation and called for an emergency meeting of the Parliamentary Board to be held 7 pm tonight. Clearly the party is now seemed to be washing its dirty linen out in public. If LK Advani is made to dissociate than it’ll impact far beyond the BJP and can prove to be a huge setback and disappointment among local netas and party workers who actually run the campaigns during elections. It would be now interesting to see how hard will the BJP bargain or just let a complete era come to an end. And with Advani’s resignation, it appears that the saffron sun has finally set for the BJP. To conclude it looks like the so-called party with difference has now become a party with differences.  

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