The whirlwinds in the political corridors of the country started gaining momentum as soon as the Bharatiya Janata Party anointed their Hindu Nationalist leader and Chief Minister of Gujarat, Mr. Narendra Modi as their official Prime Ministerial candidate. This move as speculated resulted not only in tilting the entire campaign towards a more Presidential style of elections, centered around an aggressive Modi but also led to huge polarization among the voters. With the slogan of 'Abki Baar Modi Sarkaar', BJP has put in all their efforts to reap as many political brownie points as possible by hard selling their poster boy.
But one needs to understand that elections cannot solely be won on the basis of slogan chanting or by the personality cult of an individual. The lessons could be well learnt from our neighbors where a relatively timid Nawaz Sharif defeated a much more bold and aggressive Imran Khan in the national elections which happened last year in Pakistan. After all, not everybody possesses the charisma of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, who would stand on a dais, clad in a khadi sari, and cheer the slogan of ‘Garibi Hatao’, and people would realize that their messiah has come. So while everyone in his party and that of the allies are trying to bask in the glory, they should be careful to not tan themselves.
Throughout the election campaign, if you analyze closely, BJP has had a two point basic agenda. One, to hard sell Brand Modi by projecting him as ‘Vikas Purush’ and two to polarize the polity by using the various constituents of the Sangh Parivaar who very effectively and silently have been doing their ground work in the crucial states of Bihar and UP where the blurring of caste equations can lead to huge consolidation of Hindu votes. So it's not surprising when we heard the news of rioting in Muzzaffarnagar where Jats and Muslims have lived peacefully for years or while suddenly the news of communal tension hits our TV screens and curfew imposed in Kanpur after there was reports that veteran BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi might be losing out the battle to Congress's Sriprakash Jaiswal.
With all the major opinion polls projecting a lotus bloom and rout of the Congress in this general elections, it is important to look at some ground realities before we jump to conclusions. Being someone who has been constantly talking to people from key states and travelling across India for various activities, I could see a very different picture from what has been so far projected by the media as a big Modi wave across the country. Is the big hullabaloo about the so-called 'wave' actually translating into votes? Or it might just leave the party in an awkward position where while the number of seats does increase but it doesn't help to catapult them to grab power at the centre. Then what is the actual scenario that is being developing in the political landscape of the country as half the country has already voted to decide the fate of the next government? Let us have a look.
First, let us analyze the crucial projection of seats across the country with special emphasis on the Hindi heartland where they are heavily banking on. These projections that I would be presenting are based primarily on how equations are fast changing as elections come close to an end. Even with a grand alliance of regional parties in Tamil Nadu, return of BS Yedduruppa in Karnataka, stitching a tie-up with Chandrababu Naidu's TDP in Andhra Pradesh and with Narendra Modi himself addressing so many rallies in Kerela, the prospects are not so bright for the saffron party in the southern part of the country. While in Kerela it might not even open it's account, in Tamil Nadu, they can't win more than 2-5 seats.
Similarly Yedduruppa's entry has failed to change dynamics in Karnataka and therefore cannot help win more than 10-12 seats out of 28. In Andhra Pradesh and Telengana too, the total tally for the party might not cross 2-5 seats, thereby giving BJP a total of 20 seats from South India. Coming to East India and the north-east, it looks like the Modi wave hasn't change anything much and the states are sticking more and less to the same old players. In the north-east except for Assam where they can hope for a maximum of 5 seats to their kitty, in most other states, they'll struggle to win even a single seat. In the eastern states of West Bengal and Odisha, Mamata Banerjee and Naveen Pattnaik would hold key to most of the seats leaving BJP with not more than 5 seats from both the states even if they see a rise in their vote share. Chattisgarh and Jharkhand are however two states where BJP would make huge gains and can end up winning 7-8 seats out of 11 and 6-7seats out of 14 respectively.
Now coming down to the western and northern states where the BJP is heavily banking to ride on the Modi wave, the grass is not as green as it appears to be on the other side of the fence. In Maharashtra along with allies Shiv Sena and RPI, the party is hoping to win as many as 35 seats. However latest ground reports suggest that the voting pattern hasn't much changed in the state and while a seat or two might flip to the other side, the voters are still sticking to the Congress-NCP alliance. This leaves them with not more than 20 seats in the state. States where they'll make huge inroads are Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan where they can win more than 20 seats each.
However it's the northern part of the country that matters the most. In Punjab huge anti-incumbency and an aggressive campaign by Capt. Amarinder Singh is giving a very tough time to the BJP-SAD alliance. In Haryana too, despite anti-incumbency setting in, the Hooda govt appears to be better placed and BJP can expect not more than 5-6 seats out of the state’s 14. Also in the hilly states of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, the party can expect not more than 8 seats in total.
In Bihar out of the 40 seats, BJP was expecting that the Modi wave will blur caste lines and bag more than 25 seats. That clearly is not happening. Lalu has made a grand comeback and the Congress-RJD-NCP together with their M-Y duo is expected to win many seats and be edge to edge in many others. Nitish Kumar's JD (U) though hugely losing ground will play a major spoiler with his Kumri and Mahadalit vote banks consolidating towards his party. Then how many seats are they winning in Bihar? My estimate is not more than 18 and I'm being very humble as in many parts especially North-east Bihar, there is clearly no Modi wave.
There is a very popular saying in politics that the road to Delhi goes through UP. It is the state which sends most number of MPs to the parliament and every party has huge stake in it. With Narendra Modi himself fighting from the state, the fortunes of BJP depend hugely on how it fares in India's largest state. With a plethora of strong regional parties like SP, BSP, RLD etc the final results might just throw a lot of surprises than what majority of opinion polls has to say. And mark my words, it is only when the results of UP would be announced, will suddenly the media wake up to the political prowess of Mayawati. They might end up bagging maximum number of seats, but again, my projection says they can't cross 20-25 and that is solely because of the so-called Modi wave.
So, with these projections, where do we leave BJP when seen in totality? My prediction is that with the help of the Modi wave, if there is any, the party will not cross more than 165-180 seats. Rest will depend on how they stitch their alliances with key regional players. With major players like Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, Naveen Pattnaik, K Chandrasekhar Rao etc taking a hugely anti-Modi stand, the going is really tough for the party.
Secondly, despite the odds being in favor of BJP, four key leaders in the party are facing their toughest battle yet. First in the row is Arun Jaitley. Erstwhile seen as a safe seat, the rumors were that he would be seen only twice in the constituency, once to file his nomination and next to collect his winning certificate. But the entry of former Punjab Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh on Sonia Gandhi's insistence has made him stay there ever since. The fight is so edge to edge that Jaitley has called in his entire family and all his intellectual friends from Delhi to campaign for him. The empty chairs that greeted Modi in his recent Amritsar rally perhaps bear testimony to what is coming. Veteran leader Murli Manohar Joshi after being shifted from Varanasi is facing a formidable Sriprakash Jaiswal in Kanpur and ground reports suggest that he seems to have an edge over Joshi.
The third leader in the fray is party President Rajnath Singh who too shifted base from Ghaziabad to Lucknow and is repeatedly invoking memories of Vajpayee to win over the voters. However Congress's Rita Bahugana Joshi is giving him a run for his money as the 4.5 lakhs Muslim votes is hugely consolidating in her favor and there are the other traditional Congress vote banks too. What is most interesting is the challenge that Narendra Modi faces in Varanasi. Though the odds are in his favor and he clearly has an edge over his opponents. The withdrawal of don-politician Mukhtar Ansari's nomination to ensure that the secular votes don’t split can play a huge spoiler for him. Congress's Ajay Rai who claims to be a local has considerable amount of support in the holy city. And then we have Arvind Kejriwal who too if sources are to be believed is gaining huge grounds with each passing day.
At a time when there is huge anti-incumbency in the country, the much hyped Modi wave is not seemed to be gaining as much as it is projected by the media. BJP's hope to cut across caste equations and consolidate Hindu votes in its favor is clearly not working perfectly. On May 17, the very next day when results of the general elections will be announced, the front page of all the leading newspapers will bear the picture of Narendra Modi, either lauding his success and charisma or narrating his doom. While we were shooting for our documentary ‘The Gujarat Promise’ in Juhapura, I asked an old woman about what she has to say about Modi, and she replied 'There are good people. There are bad people. And there is Narendra Modi.'. While we are smart enough to read between the lines and interpret the statement both ways, it kind of sums it all.
For all sorts of bouquets and brickbats, feel free to leave a comment below or mail me at author.vish94@gmail.com
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