Yes the lotus has indeed bloomed for Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as the long waited announcement of him becoming the Chairman of the Central Campaign Committee has been finally announced. After a three-day long BJP National Executive Meet at Goa, Party President Rajnath Singh finally announced the anointment of Narendra Modi as the Campaign Chief earlier today. This comes after a lot of speculations and media frenzy over the past few days over the issue. But even as jubilations and celebrations spread throughout the country among BJP party workers, let us look at the entire episode and what it means for the BJP in the upcoming 2014 Lok Sabha Elections.
Clearly it is a very decisive message coming out of the Bharatiya Janata Party as to whom they want to project as the face of the party in the upcoming assembly elections. But the clear divide among different party cadres is also evident and there is no doubt about it that even among the BJP now there lies two camps: the Pro NaMo and the Anti NaMo. Senior BJP Leader and the former Deputy Prime Minister, LK Advani is among the frontrunners, critically opposed to the rise of Narendra Modi among his party. Until recently in his speech, he went on to praise the Chief Ministers of Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh saying that they’ve done a better job than Narendra Modi as they’ve developed underdeveloped states.
The Anti NaMo camp includes not only party founder Advani but also senior BJP leaders such as Sushma Swaraj, Jaswant Sinha, Uma Bharti and even Shatrugan Sinha. While Sushma Swaraj made a guest appearance in the recent BJP Goa Meet, others completely boycotted it citing a variety of reasons ranging from ill health to private issues. Though a range of senior leaders have serious reservations about the lastest promotion given to Mr. Modi, there are also a lot of them in support of it. Key leaders supporting the decision include Party President Rajnath Singh, Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha Arun Jaitely, Gujarat Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP Vice President Smriti Irani. As they believe that a definite path to electoral success in 2014 is via Narendra Modi.
Though the rise Narendra Modi from a RSS Pracharak to three time elected Chief Minister of Gujarat and now the Chairman of the Central Campaign Committee have been spectacular, how much he can deliver in the upcoming general elections is the crucial question now. Apart from Gujarat, there are no evidences to show his charm to be working in any other states. To cite a few examples, his campaign in Karnataka failed to win BJP even a single seat in the constituencies he campaigned in. Learning lessons from the recent Pakistan elections, we shouldn’t forget that personality and charm cannot alone help one win an election.
Our previous articles ‘The Ghosts of Gujarat’ and ‘Because Modi is not Vajpayee’ gave you a clear insight on how Narendra Modi is a controversial figure and why is not widely acceptable as a mass leader. Even if BJP projects Narendra Modi and the Hindutva card extensively, it cannot win more than 160-170 seats, still running short of about 100-110 seats which would come from crucial allies. Now if they name him their Prime Ministerial candidate, who will align with them, remains a big question. As I always say, BJP as a party has been a ‘Political Untouchable’ whom no one wishes to align with. And in such a situation, the going is indeed going to be tough for the BJP in the coming days.
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) would be among the first to quit the alliance. Even a loyal partner such as the Shiv Sena might not fall in place as Balasaheb Thackerey himself was never very fond of him and never liked to share the popular tag of Hindu Hriday Samrat with Narendra Modi. Who would give them the remaining 100-110 seats which would be crucial to from the government? Apart from may be Akali Dal or a probable AIADMK who will support a party headed by someday whose secular credentials are seriously doubted. There is a list of strong regional parties who would definitely not support the BJP with Narendra Modi as their prime ministerial candidate.
Coming down to the voter base in the country, who would really vote for Mr. Narendra Modi other than may be some factions of the corporate world and a small section of urban voters. A farmer in may be Vidharba or Hyderabad or Kerala is unlikely to vote for him as he/she cannot relate to his Corporate India Vision. And we shouldn’t forget that India lives in its villages and it is the rural India which actually acts as game changers during elections. Needless to say what the stand of the minorities would be in this entire electoral process.
The roadmap for 2014 has been laid and the next 12 months would be very interesting for any political observer as a country of 1.2 billion people goes for the general elections. Will we get to see a completely different Narendra Modi avatar and the revival of the BJP? Or will the Ghosts of the 2002 Gujarat riots continue to haunt him? Will he able to fight the factions in the BJP critical about him? To conclude, I would like to quote the lines of Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in the wake of the 2002 Gujarat Riots: ‘My only request to the Chief Minister of Gujarat is that he should follow raj dharma and not discriminate on the basis of caste, creed or religion…’
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