Telangana: The Story Unsaid

The latest decision passed by the Congress Working Committee to bifurcate the state of Andhra Pradesh and grant Telangana statehood has though come under sharp attack from the Opposition questioning the timing of the decision, but the fact remains that a majority of the citizens of Andhra Pradesh has welcomed it. The popular political rhetoric says that Telengana never destined to be a part of Andhra as the struggle goes back to five decades. The issue was as much about identity as about compatibility and neither was satisfied by the existing situation. No one really knows who coined the word ‘Seemandhra’ to indicate the non-Telangana regions of Andhra Pradesh. But, the leaders of those two regions certainly would not have anticipated that the ‘Seemandhra’ spectre would loom so large and so quickly upon them.

It is clear that the Congress wants to win at least half of the 33 seats it had won in the 2009 polls in the State, an objective that gained strength from the recent, not-so-bad show put up by the party candidates in the first two phases of the panchayat elections. Also noteworthy is the political strategizing that the party started a few weeks back by granting Cabinet berths in the latest reshuffle to two of the most hardcore united Andhra leaders, Kavuri Sambasiva Rao from West Godavari and JD Seelam from Guntur and then making them responsible for reigning in the ferocious local leaders in their respective areas.

However there is a lot more than what seems to meet the eyes. The grand showup of Telangana might be so quick as it now needs to go through a grilling process, including adoption of state re-organisation bill by Parliament by a simple majority which would take at least 6-9 months and would get over just before the general elections. Contrary to the perception that a Constitution amendment bill is required, the bill to be adopted by Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha does not need a two-thirds majority as is the case when a Constitution amendment is required to be adopted. At a Union Cabinet meeting held on 31^st July 2013, an in-principle approval was given for creation of a Group of Ministers (GoM) comprising Ministers of Home, Finance, HRD, Health, Irrigation, Power, Environment and Forests, Railways and Deputy Chairman Planning Commission to go into the economic issues on creation of the new state.

The Home Ministry would submit a note to the Union Cabinet for creation of Telanagana on the basis of the proposal received from the state government. The entire process will take at least 40 days. The Union Home Ministry will prepare another note for the Union Cabinet with Re-organisation bill on the basis of the recommendations and suggestions of the GoM requesting the Union Cabinet to approve the State Re-organisation bill and to recommend to the President to refer the Bill to the legislature of the state. Andhra Pradesh State Legislature will also have to pass a resolution that a separate state of Telangana be formed.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance will appoint an expert Committee to recommend measures for smooth transition in terms of financial management and viability of the reorganised state. In view of the normative economic factors that would operate in the remaining state of Andhra Pradesh consequent upon formation of Telangana state, a dedicated unit will be set up in the Planning Commission to deal exclusively with the re-organised state under the direct charge of the Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission.

It would then be followed by a second Cabinet meeting, the Prime Minister would recommend to the President that the draft Bill be referred under Article 3 of the Constitution to the State Legislature for their views to be given within 30 days. The President would then refer the Bill to the State Legislature. Both the Andhra Pradesh Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council will then consider the Bill and give their views within 30 days. The recommendations of the State Legislature will be incorporated into the draft Re-organisation Bill and vetted by the Law Ministry.

A third note will be then be prepared with draft Re-organisation bill vetted by the Law Ministry and sent to the Union Cabinet for approval for introduction in Parliament. Soon, a notice will be given for introduction of the Reorganisation Bill in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha. After introduction in both Houses of Parliament, the Bill has to be passed by a simple majority. After being passed by both the Houses of Parliament, the Bill will be sent to President for his assent and the new state Telangana will come into existence.

So a lot of work still needs to be done, particularly in the area of division of resources and water-sharing arrangement, and it might take a year more for the new state to be officially formed. The Seemandhra region, which has a reason to feel cheated, could actually gain from the division. The business and construction activities associated with the new capital city could give its economy a fillip. While political parties and leaders have already started claiming brownie points out of it with Narendra Modi’s latest slogan chants of ‘Jai Telangana’ and ‘Jai Seemandhra’  echoing in Hyderabad. However the audience didn’t seem to oblige much right?

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Mission Hyderabad: The Rs. 5 Game Plan

As if the ‘I am a Hindu Nationalist’ banners and the puppy remark were not controversial enough, the BJP’s potential Prime Ministerial Candidate Mr. Narendra Modi is back with another master plan which is creating quite a stir in the mainstream media. Oh yes, I’m talking about BJP’s Rs. 5 Hyderabad rally. The rally, planned by the BJP back in the day when Andhra Pradesh was one state, shot to instant stardom not only because of its chief speaker but because the organisers decided to charge Rs 5 from everyone who wanted to hear Modi speak. The announcement as usual led to huge political discourse by inviting a storm of brickbats and counter jibes.

While the Union I&B Minister, Manish Tewari tweeted that by putting a five rupees price on his speech, the BJP has given out the true worth of its much celebrated leader, BJP Spokesperson Nirmala Seetharaman was prompt to retaliate and explained that this was a noble attempt to garner funds for charity. Now what exactly is the logic behind this sort of pricing of a potential Prime Ministerial candidate, I have no idea. But it certainly doesn’t help the BJP in anyway other than inviting unnecessary criticism from all quarters.

The much hyped rally is expected to take place today as Narendra Modi arrives in Hyderabad amidst tight security. Voicing his excitement in Twitter, he tweeted this morning “On my way to Hyderabad - I can feel the enthusiasm of the Youth already. Looking forward to Nava Bharat Yuva Bheri!”. While the fact remains that the Congress is having an upper hand over the BJP  in swooping up support from the Telangana quarters and the opposition didn’t also see it coming this soon, Modi is expected to work his charm is biting into the Congress’ currently safe vote-bank in divided Andhra Pradesh.

As per reports in the New Indian Express, Modi is expected to explain and reiterate his party’s position on small state demands and possibly also try and expose flaws in the Congress’ approach to the division of states. He would explain to the audience how committed his party is to smaller states and cite creation of three states during the NDA regime. He is likely to reiterate his opposition to Hyderabad remaining as joint capital for the two states since it is not on the border but is situated deep inside Telangana. BJP has been pulling out the plugs to make sure Narendra Modi’s maiden Hyderabad address is an overwhelming success. From aggressive Twitter publicity to live streaming that party has been trying to make sure that Modi’s speech hits all the right notes in a strife-torn Hyderabad at the moment. 

The rally, named Navabharat Yuva Bheri keeping in mind Modi’s target audience, will extensively be used by the BJP as a plank to rile the youth from the Seemandhra region. While the BJP itself was for the division of Andhra Pradesh and has repeatedly and vocally backed the demand for a separate Telangana, the party will try its best to cash in on the widespread anger seething in people from Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema. How the party will pander to both supporters of Telangana and those opposed to it has been left entirely to the politicking talents of Modi – the party’s poll beacon at the moment.

Now it would be interesting to see what might work in Modi’s favour as he addresses the rally in Hyderabad today. How he cuts through the Congress and balance those for the creation of a separate Telengana and those against it is the question of the hour now. As the BJP is banking all its hope in the Gujarat Chief Minister, what kind of magic can he create in a land whose domestic politics has been totally different from that the rest of the country, it would indeed prove to be a litmus test for him as they believe that its only him who can hijack Congress’s plans in the state. 

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Letter to Modi from a Nationalist Youth

Dear Mr. Narendra Modi,

Though you’ve never been really dear to me since the time you took over as the Chief Minister of Gujarat, with each passing day you are giving me more and more reasons to continue to do so. The youth of this country today is really tired of empty promises made by politicians and throwing stories of growth which are nothing but a sham. And unfortunately you’re no different. I know that you have a brilliant PR team working 24x7 for you and being a mass media student myself, I’m well aware of the brownie points you’re gaining out of it. But no one can really hide the truth for a long time and let me tell you that the Indian youth is really smart and it can easily distinguish the lies which are otherwise disguised as truth.

Recently the city of Mumbai is flooded with hoardings of yours with lines such as ‘I am a Hindu Nationalist” and “I am a Patriot. I am a Nationalist. I am a born Hindu”. Let me tell you something. A nationalist is a nationalist. He or She can never be a Hindu Nationalist or a Muslim Nationalist or for that matter a Sikh or Christian Nationalist. You must be now wondering which community I belong to right? Trust me it doesn’t matter and so doesn’t your luring of the majority community. The youth of the city is disgusted with your politics of polarisation and policies which is so discriminatory and divisive.

If my memory serves me right, wasn’t your clarion call always about the so called development in Gujarat? If you are so development oriented, why are you back to the hardcore politics of Hindutva? Ah, you must have realized that today or tomorrow finally the truth will come out in open and then your only face saver would be the Hindutva card right? Sorry Mr. Modi not happening. By this you are giving more and more feed to your critics and a thousand reasons to the voters for not voting for you. Your aggressive election campaign would crumble just like your party’s campaign of Indian Shining in 2004.

I would suggest you to look after the state which has elected you for the third time and put your national ambitions to a halt. Still wondering what you need to work on in Gujarat? Don’t worry, I will put before you facts that is bound to make you very uncomfortable. Starting with the most talked about ‘Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit’ which boasts of turning the tide of the economy in the state and heavy investments which will bring the state out of penury, the truth is otherwise far from what is being projected.

The findings of the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy suggests only a small percentage of projects announced in Vibrant Gujarat (VG) summits in 2009 and 2011 have actually moved on the ground. In VG held in January 2009, government claims that 3,574 Memorandum of Understanding (MoUs) were signed for investments worth Rs 12 trillion. But CMIE could capture information and details of only 220 projects worth Rs 3,947 billion (Rs 3,94,700 crore).  “The number of projects captured…were drastically low when compared with the official numbers displayed on the event's website because of poor disclosure of basic information about the projects proposed. In most cases the website does not provide the details of a valid company name, location, product, and capacity,’’ says the CMIE report.

And an opinion piece in a national daily by noted author Ramachandra Guha only reaffirms the crumbling infrastructure of the state which you otherwise claim to be the most-developed in India. He said, "As a sociologist who treats the aggregate data of economists with scepticism, I myself do not believe that Gujarat is the best developed State in the country. Shortly after Mr. Modi was sworn in for his third full term, I travelled through Saurashtra, whose polluted and arid lands spoke of a hard grind for survival. In the towns, water, sewage, road and transport facilities were in a pathetic state; in the countryside, the scarcity of natural resources was apparent, as pastoralists walked miles and miles in search of stubble for their goats. Both hard numbers and on-the-ground soundings suggest that in terms of social and economic development, Gujarat is better than average, but not among the best. "

Also breaking the popular political rhetoric of development in Gujarat let me tell you Mr. Modi that between 2006-7 and 2010-11, Gujarat had a growth of 9.3 per cent, which was behind Naveen Patnaik’s Orissa at 9.4 per cent. Nitish Kumar’s Bihar topped with 10.9 per cent while Chhattisgarh (10 per cent), Haryana (9.7 per cent) and Maharashtra (9.6 per cent) followed. Your state is the worst performer in malnutrition with 69.7% of children upto the age of five, anaemic and 44.6% malnourished. The literacy rate in Gujarat is marginally above the national average but extremely low in the tribal areas; primary education in Gujarat is in the doldrums and the worst sufferers are the poor and the marginalized.

Female foeticide is high in Gujarat and today the Gujarat sex ratio has a skewed rate of 918 - making it one of the worst States in the country.  Unemployment is rampant in Gujarat and that the average daily wage for casual workers in Gujarat is just about Rs. 83 in the rural areas and Rs. 106 in the urban areas. Large sections of the minority communities are confined to ghettoes and cannot live in neighbourhood of their choice and the state instead has the most draconian ‘Freedom of Religion Law’ in the country which necessitates that the person has to seek the permission of the civil authority before they can convert to a religion of their choice.

So Mr. PM in waiting when you would be finally able to do away with all these problems in your state, maybe we can think of considering you for any role in the national politics. Remember growth and development should always be inclusive and wholesome. History bears testimony to the fact that rampant industrialization has always been followed by a revolution as it can alone not solve all the problems of a state. And its high time you learn some lessons from history.

Yours faithfully,

A Nationalsit Youth.

The Modi Mantra

Though the grass might look greener on the other side of the fence for BJP workers, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is well aware of the challenges that lay ahead of him. In the race for the 2014 General Elections, he is already pushing party leaders to focus on various issues of great concern. Though he might ride high in opinion polls and surveys and also be the most talked about politician in the country, the ground realities can be way more different than what is being projected. Winning opinion polls and winning the parliamentary elections in such great magnitude is a completely different ballgame and he understands it well.

In his first strategy meet which happened with party General Secretaries at Delhi a few days back, Modi supposedly cautioned his colleagues not to be “overconfident”, and instead get down to some hard work. The party has by far made no coherent plans as such to take against the Congress in the upcoming general elections as well as elections happening in key states such as Rajasthan, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. If sources are to be believed, the two key issues that he mainly focused on are the following.

The first issue that he is really worried about is that the BJP is losing key allies and it is important for the party to look for and engage prospective allies in all regions, no matter how big or small they might be. For instance, prospective allies could be AGP in Assam, INLAD in Haryana, TRS in the Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh and even possibly enticing BS Yeddyuruppa back to the BJP or at least the NDA. Nitish Kumar’s dramatic exit from the NDA has given them a big blow and has also shaken the foundation of getting more allies which are otherwise not easily available.

The other important issue that he focussed upon is the decreasing vote shares in the most populous and politically significant state of the country: Uttar Pradesh.  The BJP won 58 seats from UP in 1998, but since 1999 parliamentary elections the party’s tally has been on a continuous slide. Narendra Modi has posted his close aide Amit Shah as party’s in-charge of UP, and the former Gujarat deputy chief minister is expected to begin his campaign soon. For the BJP, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Odisha are key states where it needs to make substantive gains if it had to dislodge Congress. The party’s leader in Uttar Pradesh are optimistic and believe the current situation the state could allow the party to make significant gains, possibly doubling or tripling their tally since the last polls.

According to some leaders, there are three groups of voters in the state that NaMo can appeal to. For upper caste voters, Modi presents a perfect combination of Hindutva and strong administrative skills. Younger voters could also find appeal in his development oriented leadership. And among the lower castes, except the Yadavs, the psychological pride of electing a Prime Minister from among the OBC community could just evoke the right sentiments in favour of the BJP. In this context, his supporters are already toying with the idea of Modi contesting the next general elections from UP, preferably from one of the urban seats, Lucknow, Allahabad or Kanpur.

 What we need to understand out of this is the fact that Narendra Modi has a tough battle against him. While the ghosts of the 2002 riots will continue to haunt him, the fact that the BJP is losing on prospective allies is an issue of great concern for him. Even at the peak of their popularity in 1999, BJP barely retained its tally of 180 seats but at that time it had the solid allies in all parts of the country like the DMK, TDP, TMC, BJD JD(U) and there were a total of 24 allies. While now they are barely left with any allies except for Shiv Sena and Akali Dal which have limited electoral significance. In such a situation, it would be interesting to observe in the coming months, how Modi leads the election campaign for BJP and if he can really deliver as it is being boasted by his followers.

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Nitish's wrath on BJP

As the bitter fallout between the JD(U) and the BJP escalates into a power struggle in the state of Bihar, the latter seems to be uprightly aggressive. While the BJP bristles in fury at the ‘great betrayal’ by the former member of their alliance, it is windfall time too for the JD(U). As many as 18 ministerial portfolios are lying vacant which would be now filled by Kumar’s closest aides or independents that his party is desperate to rope in for its survival. Following the BJP-JD(U) split, Kumar ordered the dismissal of all 11 BJP ministers including his Deputy Prime Minister Sushil Kumar Modi.

Among other BJP ministers who got sacked include Prem Kumar (Urban Development and Housing), Satyadeo Narayan Arya (Mines and Geology), Nand Kishore Yadav (Road Construction), Chandra Rai (PHED), Ashwini Kumar Choubey (Health), Janardhan Singh Sigriwal (Labour Resources), Giriraj Singh (Animal and Fishery Resources), Sunil Kumar Pinto (Tourism) Sukhada Pandey (Art, Culture and Youth Affairs) and Ramadhar Singh (Cooperative). The state erstlwhile had only 29 ministers as against 36, including the Chief Minister, which were seven short of the maximum.

In the current scenario, Independents hold good chance of becoming ministers or head of boards or corporations. There are six independants so far in the 243 member assembly.Hitherto grossly outnumbered as Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal has merely 22 members, the BJP’s takeover of the Opposition with 91 members will further add to the ruckus in the assembly. On the other hand, Congress counts for four whereas CPI and Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJp have one member each.

Interestingly after the split went official, the saffron party released Nitish Kumar’s 2003 speech in which he openly praised Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as a leader with a future outside the state. This was clearly a desperate move by the BJP to embarrass Nitish Kumar indicating to his sudden ‘secular’ credentials and that he was not always opposed to the saffron strongman. The speech delivered at the inauguration of a railway project was well after the 2002 riots. To quote, he said “I am certain that Narendrabhai will not be confined to Gujarat for long and the country will get the benefit of his services.”

Meanwhile BJP stalwart LK Advani and Leader of Opposition at Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj visualized the end of the alliance as a highly unfortunate incident. However the leaders at Bihar have turned more aggressive. Ejected Deputy CM, Sushil Kumar Modi said on Sunday that the BJP would avenge this ‘Vishwasghaat’ (betrayal). He said “We’ll take revenge of this insult in the Lok Sabha elections next year. We’ll ask people to judge the performances of BJP ministers and compare them with that of the JD(U) ministers. We’ll not spare corrupt ministers.”

In today’s era of shifting goalposts, it would be interesting to see what would be the next move that Nitish Kumar takes. The Congress too is ready to lure the JD(U) with a special package for Bihar in the hope of a probable alliance in future. But Kumar being an Anti-Congress politician since his political beginning will he go ahead and join hands with the Congress? Or is it indeed a political suicide that they’ve committed? Only time seem to have the answers to this complex questions hidden in its womb.

Nitish Kumar Roars High

With Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi's stature reaching new heights and the return of LK Advani after his resignation was rejected by the BJP Parliamentary Board, the party that has been hit the most by this development seems to be the JD(U). Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's opposition to Narendra Modi is not new and the current rift between the BJP and the JD(U) is another proof to the old point. With his relationship with BJP flat-lining, the entire spotlight is now fixed on him. If sources are to be believed, he has received calls from senior BJP leaders like LK Advani and Rajnath Singh, requesting him to continue to be a part of the NDA. But despite serious attempts, this time he seems to be unmoved and adamant about his decision.

Since a very long time now, Nitish Kumar and his party the JD(U) has shown their displeasure over the growing influence and stature of Narendra Modi within the BJP and is seriously upset with his anointment as the Chairman of the Central Campaign Committee. And with Advani’s latest political drama over his resignation, they seem to be on their toes now to take a decision as to where do they stand. The JD(U) is one of the founding members of the NDA and is now in alliance with them since 17 years. Though senior leaders tried to lure Kumar, in their phone conversations, he reportedly offered no assurance to the BJP stalwarts that he will reconsider his decision to end their partnership.

In the wake of the latest crisis, the Bihar Chief Minister has asked all legislators from his party to stay at Patna on 15^th June for consultations. They are likely to discuss whether or not the JD(U) will continue its alliance with the BJP in future. So in case they go serious and split with the BJP, what options will then be available for the JD(U) in future? And with whom will they go ahead in the upcoming elections is the bigger question now. Nitish Kumar this morning also told the media that he has been in talks with West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee about assembling a non-congress, non-BJP ‘Federal Front’ that would include other regional powerhouses such as Odisha’s BJD led by Naveen Patnaik.

Recently a senior leader from Kumar’s JD(U) visited Mamata Banerjee for what according to him was a courtesy call. KC Tyagi also commented, ‘Both the UPA and NDA coalitions have failed.’ This is a direct criticism from the JD(U) which is also a part of the National Democratic Alliance spearheaded by the BJP, needless to say, they are a senior member of the alliance. At an interesting turn of events the BJP said that if Nitish Kumar’s party quits their alliance, he should seek an election in Bihar to prove he hasn’t lost the mandate of the people. BJP’s CP Thakur recently said ‘We won’t compromise on that; we have taken the decision after a lot of discussion.’

Ironically in parts of the state recently toured by Nitish Kumar, several posters of Narendra Modi have greeted him. The BJP has also invited Narendra Modi to address an election rally in Patna in October. By far, Nitish Kumar has placed a virtual restraining order on Narendra Modi campaigning in Bihar. Apart from a variety of reasons, a flashpoint in the alliance was hit a few days back when the JD(U) lost an important election in the Lok Sabha constituency of Maharajganj. Interestingly BJP leaders also accepted that their party cadres had not worked for the JD(U) candidate.

In the upcoming days it would be interesting to see what direction our Indian politics takes. Will the JD(U) end their 17 year of alliance with the BJP or is it another political façade created by both the parties? In case of a split and with Congress luring JD(U) with a special status and huge funds, is a future alliance with the Congress inevitable? Or will the Federal Front come out in a big way and pave the path of a new era in Indian Politics? History bears testimony that till date only governments led by the Congress and the BJP has lasted their full terms. All other attempts such as the United Front have failed due to individual greed of power among leaders of different parties. Will this time be an exception then?

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